How the NHL Sim Engine Works

Every scoring chance boils down to one shooter rating run against one goalie, but that rating is never the raw card number. It is the player's attribute multiplied by his current context:

The chance itself is then a match-up: shooter vs goalie, adjusted by shot danger, momentum, clutch, and special teams. Because everything is a ratio (never a hard if A > B) with a floor, even a heavy underdog steals games sometimes — upsets sit at a realistic ~42%.

• Shot-volume Fast statistical model — shot totals come from team ratings, each shot is converted by finishing vs goalie. Proven & calibrated. The default.
• Possession decision-tree A 1-second-per-tick state machine: a puck carrier moves through zones (D→N→O) and at every step an attribute match-up decides keep-vs-strip (SK vs DF), shoot-vs-pass (SC vs PA), block (DF vs SC), the shot (SC vs goalie) and rebounds (RB). Shots & goals are emergent. The most realistic model.

Every modifier below feeds both engines. Switch engine in the Simulation settings.

• Each forward trio & defense pair has a chemistry from 0–100. New lines start low (~35).
• Every game a unit plays intact, chemistry grows (~2/game); ~40–50 games together reaches the top.
• Break a unit (injury, call-up, a trade) and it drops back toward base — keep your lines stable to build it.
• Role diversity matters: a line wants a playmaker + a sniper + a grinder; a pair wants an offensive + a stay-at-home D. Three of the same type never fully click.
• Off-position caps it: if even one player is out of his natural spot, that unit can never fully gel (capped, e.g. ~55%).
• A gelled line shoots & defends at full strength; a fresh or mismatched one is quietly penalised — so chemistry never inflates league scoring, it only rewards stability.

Special teams: put your intact 5v5 top line on PP1 and its chemistry carries — a gelled PP1 is deadly. A gelled PK1 shields. Don't split a chemistry line across units.

A defenseman's natural side comes from Shoots (left-shot = left side). A forward's spots come from his position (a "C/RW" is a universal — no penalty). Out of position he is still playable, but weaker:

• ~7% wrong wing, or a D on his off-hand side
• ~17% a winger at center or a center on the wing — plus the winger's faceoff collapses to ~30%
• ~35% a forward on defense (or a D up front) — a real disaster

On the power play / penalty kill the position penalty is waived (you can run 4 forwards on the PP).

• Post-game: a heavy night (F ≥ 22 min, D ≥ 25 min) shaves a CON point; a playoff OT marathon costs one per extra period (1st OT → 98, 2nd → 97…). It recovers on rest days.
• In-game (possession engine): a long shift drains a player's effective attributes; high Endurance (EN) slows the drain — so a fresh 4th line can outskate a gassed, over-used top line.
• Goalies: CON falls with shot-load and a back-to-back; a tired goalie is measurably weaker.

• Momentum — a goal gives the scoring team a short hot streak (better finishing for a few minutes); the team that conceded sags. Leadership (LD) stretches the streak, Experience (EX) steadies a team after a goal against. This is why goals come in bunches.
• Clutch — in the last minutes of a tight 3rd, in OT, and (amplified) in the playoffs, high EX/LD/composure players rise and score the winners.
• Morale — a persistent mood: wins & production lift it, losses sink it. Below neutral a player is penalised; riding high he plays over his head. It mean-reverts so the league stays balanced.

• Danger: a point shot from a D is low (×0.35), a forward's own-rush shot medium (×1.0), a one-timer off a pass or a rebound high (×1.85+). High chemistry → more clean passes → more high-danger looks automatically.
• Pressure: sustained shots in one shift (screens, rebounds, a tiring goalie) each get a small boost.
• Physicality: heavier players throw more hits and win more net-front battles.
• Home ice & a score-effect catch-up (the team in front eases off, the trailing team presses) keep results realistic — few blowouts, plenty of 3:2 / 4:2 games.
• Frustration: a team down two-plus goals reaches and hooks more — its penalty rate climbs.

Both engines are tuned to these. Change a Game Option and re-check — if you see lots of 0:0 or 8:7 games, the danger/shot dials are off.